3 Reasons Fantasy Footballers Hire Draft Day Consultants
The question arises every summer on the Twitter Machine: why would anyone need a fantasy football consultant?
It's a fair question. I don't begrudge anyone for asking why a fellow fantasy footballer would hire a fantasy analyst to help them prepare for a draft and work with said analyst during a live, online draft. It was a novel concept before Draft Day Consultants launched in spring 2014, unless I'm woefully unaware of a similar service.
Below are the most common reasons folks come to Draft Day Consultants for pre-draft, in-draft, and season-long consultation. You can always email draftdayconsultants@gmail.com if you have your own queries about DDC.
1) People have busy lives: many clients enjoy fantasy football as a game that keeps them watching NFL games throughout the season. They like it because it gives them something to talk about with friends, colleagues and coworkers. They either don't have the time or desire to drill down into the ocean of fantasy analysis every summer. Who can blame them? Studying up on every player and preseason happening and ADP isn't their idea of time well spent. So they come to us, and in an hour or so, we can distill the tidal wave of information and hammer out a plan for how best to approach a fantasy football draft. This includes talking to clients about whether their league mates are savvy/experienced, how they usually draft, how many teams are in the league, and a variety of league settings that fluctuate from client to client. Understanding the particulars of a fantasy league is the foundation of dominating a draft.
2) Some DDC clients tell us they want a self-check in the draft room. "I tend to get caught up in positional runs," one client told me last summer, describing the oh-so-common tendency to panic and draft a tight end, for example, just because tight ends are suddenly flying off the draft board. It's during those runs, of course, that one can find value at other positions. Remaining calm and confident in the face of an all-out positional run isn't easy. In fact, it's hard. I've seen kicker runs take hold in the seventh and eighth rounds during drafts in which I'm consulting. People freak when they see league mates stocking up on quarterbacks in the third round or defenses in the ninth. A consultant is there to offer a different way -- to remind a client that he can build a rock-solid roster because of a positional run.
3) A 30 or 60-second pick clock is the bane of many fantasy gamers' existence. We've had clients tell us that even with notes and cheat sheets -- even after playing out scenarios in their head before a draft -- the short draft clock compels them into what we might call suboptimal decision making. DDC consultants chat with clients throughout a draft -- either by phone, text, G-chat, or Skype -- constantly preparing for the next pick. We suggest players to place into the draft queue. We offer reasoning for why the client should focus on a particular position, but keep a contingency plan should another player at another position should fall down the draft board. Clients appreciate this. They tell us that the lessons they learn during in-draft consultation can translate to future drafts. In that way, our service is much more than a one-off; it's a tutorial into how to approach a fantasy football draft.
Consultants don't dictate during in-draft service. They merely suggest and reason with the client. If a client disagrees with our reasoning and seems determined to pick a certain player at a certain point in the draft, that's fine. It's the client's team. We're there merely to tell the client what we would do.
Consider our range of services if you struggle with any of the above in drafting a fantasy football team. Draft season, like winter, is here.
Consultants' Thoughts On The Most Polarizing Running Back in Fantasy Football
Patriots running back Mike Gillislee's spiking average draft position -- which has jumped from 8.10 to 6.04 over the past couple months -- has made him a fairly warm topic of discussion in fantasy football circles. Below are some thoughts about Gillislee and whether he's worth the sixth round investment in re-draft leagues this summer.
Josh Hornsby
Gillislee's ADP is reaching max capacity. In mid-May, when his ADP was in the late 9th round, he was a fantastic value with high upside. Now that his ADP has climbed into the mid 6th round, I want no part of drafting him. You can draft players like Eddie Lacy, LeGarrette Blount, and Spencer Ware around him. All three backs have more solidified roles with less risk attached. Their upside isn't as great (theoretically) but the floor they should provide justifies a pivot away from Gillislee at his current ADP.
Ben Cummins
I'm bullish on Mike Gillislee and have him ranked as my PPR RB18. While there are question marks regarding his opportunity in 2017, the same can be said for many other running backs in this range. Mark Ingram is competing with Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara, Eddie Lacy with C.J. Prosise and Thomas Rawls, etc. etc. I'm willing to embrace Gillislee's volatility because of the elite upside I believe is within his range of outcomes. First of all, I believe he is a very talented player.
It's all about the offense Gillislee now finds himself in. New England has finished in the top four in points scored in each of the past seven season. Playing in such a successful offense, Gillislee is going to benefit from extended drives and plentiful scoring opportunities. Look no further than LeGarrette Blount's 2016 stat line of 299 carries, 1,161 yards, and 18 touchdowns. With Blount having moved on to Philadelphia, Gillislee is the clear early favorite to take over his elite fantasy role.
Then there's the added bonus of favorable game script. According to Rich Hribar, the Patriots led on 68 percent of their plays last season and 76 percent of their plays in the 4th quarter. Their offense projects to be even better in 2017. With DeflateGate finally behind us, Tom Brady projects to play all sixteen games, Rob Gronkowski is reportedly healthy, and Brandin Cooks was acquired in the offseason. These developments don't even seem fair when remembering the Patriots went 14-2 last season and won the Super Bowl. New England will rarely find themselves behind in games and needing to pass voluminously with James White on the field. Instead, many times Gillislee will be icing games in the second half with his no-nonsense running style.
In limited action last season (101 carries) per Player Profiler, Gillislee finished with the 12th most 15+ yards runs in the league, the best Breakaway Run Rate (percentage of carries that went for 15+ yards), and the ninth best Production Premium, which measures a player’s productivity across league average situations. Now in England, with weapons all over the field that opposing defenses have to worry about, Gillislee projects to see little work against stacked eight man fronts. Look for his success to continue this season on top of an expanded workload. I believe Gillislee's efficiency is a sign of things to come and fantasy owners will reap the benefits in a big way this season.
Denny Carter
If you would've had a vision last August showing LaGarrette Blount with more than 1,100 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, you would have happily drafted him in the third round of every fantasy draft. He went in the eighth round because of all the various uncertainty that surrounds New England running backs. Today we have Gillislee being drafted as if there's very little uncertainty that he will be the guy milking the clock and diving into the end zone for an offense that is always among the league leaders in rushing scores (and attempts). One can tell a story in which Gillislee is a mega value in the sixth round. The downside remains, unless you have insider info that you're keeping to yourself. There are certainly running backs with more outrageous ADPs -- paging Dalvin Cook, Tevin Coleman, and Bilal Powell -- but Gillislee strikes me as something of a home run swing until we get some clarity on Rex Burkhead's role in the Tom Brady's machine. Perhaps a hack for the fences is worth the risk if you're looking for a high variance fantasy squad that could blow the roof off in 2017.
Anthony Amico
With Mike Gillislee now going in the sixth round of both MFL10s and Fantasy Football Calculator drafts, I am fading him. While I do think that there is upside past this price given the quality of the Patriots' offense, there are many assumptions baked into his ADP. Fantasy gamers are expecting Gillislee to obtain the LeGarrette Blount role, which allowed him to finish as 2016's RB9 in PPR formats. While I certainly think he could inherit that role, it is important to note that Blount averaged five fewer carries and 4.5 less fantasy points per game in 2015. 2016 likely represented an upper-percentile outcome for that role. Gillislee is not a lock to receive goal-line carries in this offense. He is more than 30 pounds lighter than Blount, and six pounds lighter than Rex Burkhead. There is significant risk in Gillislee as a relatively early selection.
