2016 Week 5 DFS Newsletter

Below is an example of our Weekly DFS Newsletter (taken from Week 5 - 2016)

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FanDuel - Anthony Amico
FanDuel Week 5 GPP Stacks

1. Carson Wentz ($7,500) + Jordan Matthews ($7,000) = 24.2% of your FD Budget
Wentz has been fantastic thus far in his rookie season, completing about 65 percent of his passes for 769 yards and five touchdowns in just three games.

Now coming off of his first career bye week, he is in the excellent position of being able to take advantage of a porous Lions defense. Detroit has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, giving up 282.5 yards and three touchdowns on average.

The Eagles are a three-point road favorite, which lends itself to Wentz’ success. Since 2014, road favorite quarterbacks have averaged 17.8 FanDuel points.

Even if I control for price and narrow it down to just quarterbacks between $7,000 and $8,000, the average fantasy output is 17.09 points. These are both quality numbers for Wentz’s salary and are independent of the excellent matchup.

Matthews is currently tenth in market share of air yards on the season. Detroit has given up plenty of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, most recently Eddie Royal, who scored over 20 FanDuel points in Week 4. He should have his way with this Detroit secondary, especially since he moves around the formation enough to avoid Darius Slay. I also like making this a super stack by adding one of my top tight end targets below.

2. Ben Roethlisberger ($8,600) + Antonio Brown ($9,600) = 30.3% of your FD Budget
Roethlisberger is coming off of a five-touchdown game against the Chiefs, and will be looking to have another big game this week against the J-E-T-S. New York has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, giving up at least 297 yards passing to three of their four opponents. No quarterback has had to attempt more than 33 passes against them to put up those numbers.

Pittsburgh currently has the second-highest Vegas implied team total of the week at 27.75. Roethlisberger also owns some massive home splits, averaging 340 passing yards and 2.88 touchdowns at home since 2014. His numbers at home have been relatively the same with or without Martavis Bryant.

Brown is the obvious stacking partner for Roethlisberger. He is 15th in market share of air yards, third in target share, and third in overall targets. There is no doubt that if Big Ben has a huge game, at least some of that will come from the All-Pro receiver. Brown is averaging over 22 points at home over the same timeframe and over 24 points in games played with Roethlisberger.

3. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,900) + Brandon Marshall ($7,600) = 24.2% of your FD Budget

There have been few, if any, quarterbacks to struggle quite like Fitzpatrick has the last two weeks, throwing just one touchdown and nine interceptions on 85 attempts. However, he was much better the first two weeks of the season, exceeding 16.1 fantasy points both times. Pittsburgh has allowed at least 287 yards passing in every game this season.

The Steelers have also allowed at least 18.7 FanDuel points in three of their four games. This looks like a great opportunity to get a quarterback in a favorable matchup at low ownership.

Marshall is ninth on the year in market share of air yards and had over 50 percent of the Jets’ air yards last week with Eric Decker out. Right now, Decker is expected to miss his second consecutive game, which would make Marshall a relatively cheap volume hog to pair with his veteran quarterback.

FitzMagic and Marshall were both top-12 at their respective positions in 2015 costs the same as a rookie QB and Jordan Matthews. When you look at it from that perspective it becomes difficult to resist playing them in tournaments.

FanDuel Week 5 Players to Target At…


Punt Play: Brian Hoyer ($6,000) at Indianapolis
FanDuel kept Hoyer at the minimum this week, which I can only assume is a mistake. The veteran quarterback has thrown for 300 yards in his first two starts of the season, and gets another fantastic matchup here with the Colts. Indy has allowed over 330 yards in both of their home games so far this season, and they rank 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA.

Since 2014, starting quarterbacks priced between $5,500 and $6,500 on FanDuel have averaged 13.92 fantasy points. Only 19 (about 9.6 percent) of them have failed to reach the 12 points Hoyer would need to get to 2x value. He is a very safe option and worth consideration in all formats.

Mid-Tier Option: Derek Carr ($8,100) vs. San Diego
Carr has been a revelation yet again to start 2016, throwing nine touchdowns and just one interception through the first four games of the year. San Diego has allowed 329 yards passing or more to three of their first four opponents and have been worse on the road than at home. Since the start of 2015, Carr has accounted for 78 percent of Raider touchdowns.

This game currently has a 50-point projected total and the Raiders are 4-point home favorites. Since 2014, quarterbacks playing at home with a Vegas implied total of at least 26 have averaged 20.41 FanDuel points, regardless of matchup.

High Priced Stud: Tom Brady ($8,700) at Cleveland
This is probably the most obvious play on the entire Week 5 board. Returning from a four-game suspension is enough to ignite the “Angry Tom” narrative on Twitter, but even from a pure data perspective, this is an amazing spot. The Browns have allowed at least 18 FanDuel points to every quarterback they have faced this season, but none are as talented as the future Hall of Famer.

New England is also coming off of a loss. They have averaged 27.9 points after their last eight regular season losses. This week they are 10.5-point favorites in Cleveland, with a 28.5 team total. Brady is averaging 299 yards and 2.42 touchdowns passing in wins since 2014. He has also been way more productive through the first half of NFL seasons, averaging about 48 more yards, .92 more touchdowns, and .44 less interceptions in Weeks 1 through 9 since 2014.

Running Back

Punt Play: Terrance West ($6,400) vs. Washington
Last week the Ravens deactivated Justin Forsett and let West carry the load against Oakland. The results were terrific, as West ran for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Now that the Ravens have released Forsett we should continue to see a big workload for West, at least in the short term.

Rookie Kenneth Dixon is on the mend from an MCL injury and should be back relatively soon, but I wouldn’t expect him to make a major impact right away returning from such a serious injury.

This is also another prime matchup for West, as Washington is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the year and have given up eight rushing touchdowns. Most recently, they allowed Isaiah Crowell to rush for 112 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries. The Ravens are also 3.5-point home favorites.

Mid-Tier Option: Melvin Gordon ($7,700) at Oakland
Gordon has not been particularly efficient this season (3.2 yards per carry), but he is racking up the touchdowns (6), and continues to see easy matchups to capitalize upon. Oakland is allowing a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry to opposing teams, and was just cut up by the aforementioned West.

The Chargers are road underdogs in this matchup, but Gordon has also been very involved in the passing game since Danny Woodhead was lost for the year. He has seen seven targets in each of the past two games, catching 10 of them for 86 yards. That kind of overall volume makes him difficult to avoid in this spot, even with the sub-standard efficiency. He is also still at a reasonable price.

High Priced Stud: DeMarco Murray ($8,400) at Miami
People are going to flock to Le’Veon Bell this week after he made his impressive return from suspension, but Murray to me is the best overall running back on this slate. He is rushing for 5.2 yards per carry on the year, has already caught 19 passes, and has scored five touchdowns.

Murray is the overall RB1 this season in terms of FanDuel points, and 15 points ahead of David Johnson, who is second. All of this while playing for an offense averaging a miniscule 15.5 points per game.

This week, Tennessee has a Vegas implied team total of 20, which is 4.5 points higher than their season average. They are facing a Miami team top-five in overall pace, which accounts for the high total for the Titans. Miami has also allowed 407 rushing yards in their last three games.

Wide Receiver

Punt Play: Brice Butler ($5,100) vs. Cincinnati
Butler is priced incredibly low for someone who just had nine targets while filling in for the injured Dez Bryant. Should Bryant miss Week 5, Butler would be presented with another massive opportunity. This game is projected to be close, and that means Dak Prescott will have to throw the ball some if Dallas wants to win.

The Bengals also have a top-10 rush defense in terms of DVOA. I’m certainly not expecting a monster game from Butler, but he is a great salary saver that could let you pile studs into your lineup this weekend.

Mid-Tier Option: Julian Edelman ($7,000) at Cleveland
With Brady back, this is a terrific discount on Edelman, who was at least $7,600 during the first 10 weeks of the 2015 season before suffering an injury, and hit as high as $8,000. Last season, Edelman averaged 16 FanDuel points per game. Rob Gronkowski is also banged up, meaning even more targets could be funneled Edelman’s way.

The matchup against Cleveland is absolutely ideal. The Browns have already been dominated by similar players to Edelman such as Jordan Matthews and Jarvis Landry, and neither of them had quarterback play like Edelman is sure to have on Sunday. The veteran receiver lacks some upside, as he only has two 100-yard receiving games and two games with two touchdowns since 2014, but is as steady as they come for cash.

High Priced Stud: Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,500) at Green Bay
The people love to hate OBJ right now after totaling 22 receptions for 303 yards and no touchdowns in the first four weeks. You need to take advantage of that hate.

This is the lowest Beckham has been priced since Week 15 of his rookie season, and he is still top-five in the NFL in market share of air yards. Last year he also started slow, compiling a 24/307/2 line in the first month. In Week 5, he broke out with 7/121/1. I’m expecting a similar outcome this weekend.

The Packers have been absolutely abused by opposing wideouts so far this season, ranking third in points allowed to the position per game. Without Sam Shields to shadow in Weeks 2 and 3, both Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones eclipsed 180 receiving yards and a touchdown against them. Shields is currently considered questionable at best for Week 5.

Tight End

Punt Play: Jesse James ($4,500) vs. New York
One day FanDuel will price James above the minimum, but until then, just keep plugging him into your lineups. He only saw two targets last weekend against the Chiefs, but that was in an absolute blowout. He still managed to score a touchdown, which is really all you need for James to meet value at this price.

The Jets just gave up over 100 yards to Jimmy Graham, so they are susceptible to being beat by tight ends. There are certainly other tight ends I like better in terms of raw points, but if you need a punt, James is your man.

Mid-Tier Option: Zach Ertz ($5,600) at Detroit
Ertz is in an outrageously good spot this week while coming off of a rib injury. He saw seven targets in Week 1 and is sure to be a focal point of this offense going forward. That is particularly helpful against a Lions team getting gashed by tight ends this season.

Detroit is is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including six touchdowns.

In fact, every tight end to see at least four targets against the Lions this season has scored at least 13.3 FanDuel points. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Ertz have the best game of any of their opponents so far this season. You should take advantage of his TE11 pricing in the main slate.

High Priced Stud: Martellus Bennett ($6,300) at Cleveland
My gut says just jam in Gronkowski and hope for the best now that Brady is back, but that isn’t the kind of analysis you pay for. The reality is that Gronk is pretty badly injured and still isn’t running at full speed. He was in on 39 snaps in Week 4, but blocked on 11 pass plays, running routes on only 13 snaps.

Insert Bennett, who saw five more snaps than Gronk and went over 100 yards receiving on six targets. He’s healthy and the Patriots should continue to use two tight ends as their base formation. The Browns are fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, which was greatly aided by Jordan Reed’s two-touchdown game against them in Week 4.

Bennett has a similar range of outcomes to Gronkowski in this matchup, but is cheaper and healthier. Lock and load Marty B.

Defense/Special Teams

Punt Play: Chicago Bears ($4,200) at Indianapolis
This seems like a weird defense to select with the Bears being road underdogs to the Colts this week, but Indy just gives up a ton of points to opposing DST groups.

Andrew Luck has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the league and has also thrown three picks. Also, the Colts have fumbled four times and allowed three defensive scores. They will probably put some points on the Bears, but at $4,200, some sacks and turnovers will be enough for them to reach value.

Mid-Tier Option: Green Bay Packers ($4,600) vs. New York
Green Bay is a 7.5-point favorite over the Giants, which should mean plenty of passing for Big Blue. While I think Beckham will be able to take advantage of this defense, the Packers should also be able to apply some pressure to Eli Manning and accrue sacks. The Packers are ninth in sacks this season and are the cheapest big favorite defense on the slate.

High Priced Stud: Minnesota Vikings ($4,800) vs. Houston
The Vikings may have the best defense in the entire NFL, having just shut down Eli Manning and Cam Newton in successive weeks, and ranking highly in almost every major defensive category. Minnesota is second in sacks, second in interceptions, and first in fumbles recovered. Brock Osweiler is fifth in the NFL in interceptions. To top it all off, Minnesota is a six-point home favorite against the Texans.

DraftKings - Jason Schandl
DraftKings Week 5 GPP Stacks

1. Trevor Siemian ($5,200) + Emmanuel Sanders ($6,800) = 24% of your DK budget + Demaryius Thomas ($6,900) = 38%
This one comes with the caveat that Siemian got banged up last week, and Paxton Lynch might play. There's some additional risk in the Broncos' offense if Lynch plays -- as he's less proven than Siemian at the NFL level now -- but I'll still have some exposure to this stack regardless.
The Broncos have a 26.5-point implied total despite the uncertainty at quarterback, and are going up against a Falcons defense ranked 30th in FootballOutsiders' pass defense DVOA through four weeks.
Siemian has been an efficient fantasy producer to start the season and he ranks sixth in fantasy points per pass attempt (min. 25). He has a strong 5.88 percent touchdown rate and the Falcons have given up at least three passing touchdowns in each game this season.
Sanders has seen 13 targets in each of the last two games and has 42 on the season, which is good for sixth among wide receivers (33% of the Broncos' total). He is also tied for fifth in the NFL in market share of his team's Air Yards, a metric devised by Josh Hermsmeyer of RotoViz.
Sanders and Thomas combine for 67 percent of the Broncos' air yards, which is the third-highest for any duo in the NFL. Thomas has also seen 22 percent of the Broncos' targets, meaning the pair combines for 56 percent of Denver's total. They have also accounted for a massive 80 percent of the team's targets in the Red Zone (11 for Sanders, 5 for Thomas). Nobody else on the team has more than one target inside the 20.

2. Derek Carr ($6,800) + Amari Cooper ($7,200) + Michael Crabtree ($6,900) = 42% of your DK budget
The Raiders are another team with a huge percentage of their air yards going to two players, with Crabtree and Cooper each accounting for 33 percent. That 66 percent is the fifth-highest of any duo. They have also combined for 48 percent of the Raiders' total targets.
The Chargers have given up top-10 fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks and are allowing the league's ninth-highest touchdown rate on Red Zone pass attempts. In addition to their struggles, news broke Wednesday that they may have lost Jason Verrett, easily their best defensive back, to a partially torn ACL.
Carr is quietly the QB5 in DraftKings scoring and is ninth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per attempt (min. 25). The Raiders have the fourth-highest implied total of the week at 26.75. With the huge market share Cooper and Crabtree have combined for, the "boom" potential for this stack is huge.

DraftKings Week 5 Players to Target At…


Punt play: Brian Hoyer ($5,500) vs. Indianapolis
Hoyer has outplayed Jay Cutler this season and John Fox said on Monday Hoyer may keep the starting job even when Cutler returns from his thumb injury. His DraftKings salary is only $500 above the minimum for quarterbacks.
Hoyer has been fairly average in terms of fantasy efficiency, with 0.47 fantasy points per pass attempt, ranking 23rd among the 39 quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts on the year.
He draws a good matchup this week though, taking on a Colts defense ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. It won't take much for him to return value with such a low salary.
Mid-tier value play: Derek Carr ($6,800) vs. San Diego
I already touched on Carr in the GPP Stacks section, but he is in play in all formats this week. He's one of the few mid-priced options that gives you exposure to both a strong fantasy producer and a good matchup.
As I mentioned, Carr is the QB5 on DraftKings right now, and he ranks top-10 on a per-attempt basis. Oakland has been more pass-heavy than league average, especially in the Red Zone, where their 2.29:1 pass-to-run ratio is the third-highest in the league.
The Chargers have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Carr and the Raiders have a strong 27-point implied total in this one.
High priced stud: Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200) vs. New York Jets
Roethlisberger has had one unproductive game from a fantasy standpoint this year and it came against an Eagles team allowing the league's fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Big Ben has at least three touchdowns in each of his other three games, and 11 total on the season. Despite the down week, he is the QB4 in DraftKings scoring and fifth in fantasy points per attempt.
Not all of the betting lines have been set for the week, but Pittsburgh's 27.5-point implied total is currently the second-highest on the slate. They draw a matchup against a Jets defense ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA. Roethlisberger should be in for another big game, as the Jets have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back

Punt play: Bilal Powell ($4,000) vs. Pittsburgh
After seeing 7+ targets through four of his final six games in 2015, Powell has started out slowly this year. Things have picked back up though, and he saw six targets in Week 3 and nine targets in Week 4. He also saw his snaps increase substantially, from sub-25% in Weeks 1 and 2 to 41% in Week 3 and 52% (a higher share than Matt Forte) in Week 4.
The Steelers have allowed the ninth-most receptions and seventh-most targets to opposing running backs this season, as well as the seventh-most fantasy points.
The Jets are 7-point underdogs here, and trailing with a pass-heavy game script would give Powell the potential for a big target total. He should have no trouble returning value with DraftKings' PPR scoring.
Mid-tier value play: Jordan Howard ($5,200) vs. Indianapolis
Howard's salary has taken a big jump after he thrived in a workhorse role last week and his usage is likely to remain high. John Fox said the Bears plan to "ride him pretty good moving forward" after an "outstanding" game in Week 4.
Howard saw 23 carries and four targets last week, playing 91 percent of the team's snaps. He was also the only running back to play a snap after Jeremy Langford went down in Week 3, recording nine carries and six targets in that one.
He has a great matchup this week against a Colts' defense ranked 26th in run defense DVOA. They’re allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Despite the salary increase, it's hard to pass up a workhorse with a good matchup at such a low price point.
High priced stud: Le'Veon Bell ($7,500) vs. New York Jets
Le'Veon Bell showed no rust in his return from suspension last week.

He immediately stepped into a workhorse role, with 18 carries and six targets, finishing as the RB3 on the week. He was incredibly efficient on the ground, with 144 yards on 18 carries. He also caught 5-of-6 targets. He's no stranger to that kind of volume either, as he averaged 20.6 carries and 4.8 targets in his five full games last season.
While the Jets have a strong run defense, the Steelers are 7-point favorites, meaning there's a good chance Bell lands in a run-heavy game script. His usage in the passing game also goes a long way to make him matchup-proof.

Wide Receiver

Punt Play: Tyrell Williams ($4,700) vs. Oakland
With the Chargers hurting for pass-catchers after injuries to Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead, Williams has stepped up and played a big role over the last three games.

Williams has a team-high 23 targets, which accounts for 22 percent of the team's total. He has also accounted for 27 percent of the Chargers' air yards on the season.
While he only has one touchdown, Williams has seen a team-high 32 percent (7) of their Red Zone targets over the past three weeks, leaving him with a lot of upside to go with the floor offered by his volume.
He's up against a Raiders' secondary that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and is allowing the league's most DraftKings points to wide receivers, making this spot an especially appealing one.
Mid-tier value play: Julian Edelman ($6,700) vs. Cleveland
Tom Brady is back this week and you don't have to buy into any of the "Angry Brady" narratives to appreciate that his return means big things for the Patriots offense.
With Brady back, New England has the highest implied total of the week -- 28.5 points -- against a Browns defense ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA.
Edelman has averaged 9.65 targets per game when playing with Brady since 2014, and he should be in for a big week despite his slow start to the season.
High priced stud: Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,500) vs. Green Bay
Speaking of not buying into narratives, it's best to ignore whether or not Odell Beckham is having fun playing football this season, because he's in a great spot this week.
Beckham is tied for ninth in the NFL with 9.75 targets per game, and has accounted for 26 percent of the Giants' targets. His 40 percent market share of air yards is tied for fifth in the league.
Touchdowns are subject to huge variance, and while the fact that Beckham hasn't found the end zone yet has hurt his fantasy numbers, it's not time to panic.

Beckham has seen six (30%) of the Giants' Red Zone targets this year, and with a 30 percent touchdown rate on Red Zone targets through his first two seasons, we can expect touchdowns to start coming.
He also gets a fairly good matchup this week, as the Packers rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Tight End

Punt play: Zach Ertz ($3,500) vs. Detroit
Ertz is *the* tight end play this week for me and any exposure I have to others will be pretty limited.
The Lions have been brutal against tight ends this year, allowing an average of six receptions, 64.3 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns on 8.3 targets per game. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position -- continuing a trend that started in 205, when they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points.
A rib injury has kept Ertz out since Week 1, but he saw seven targets in that game, while backup tight ends Trey Burton and Brent Celek combined for eight targets in Week 2 and 10 targets in Week 3, meaning Ertz should see plenty of volume in an ideal matchup.
Punt play #2: Hunter Henry ($3,300) vs. Oakland
This one is contingent on Antonio Gates being sidelined again (though if Gates plays he makes a viable fantasy option himself at $4,000), as Henry has recorded nine receptions for 133 yards on 12 targets with Gates out of the lineup over the past two weeks.
He finished as the TE12 in DraftKings scoring in Week 3 and TE6 in Week 4. He has a great matchup this week against the Raiders.
As I already outlined for Tyrell Williams, the Raiders have really struggled against the pass this year, ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA, while allowing the most passing yards, sixth-most passing touchdowns, and sixth-most adjusted yards per pass attempt in the league. They have also allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
High priced stud: Rob Gronkowski ($6,500) vs. Cleveland
Gronkowski isn't somebody I would necessarily play in cash games this week, but with the tight end position being ugly, he makes for an interesting play in tournaments.
He still hasn't hit his stride as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, but he went from playing only 22 percent of New England's offensive snaps in Week 3 to 70 percent in Week 4.
With tight end being such a variable position, there can be a lot of value in finding one who finds the end zone, and that's where Gronkowski's value lies this week.
I've already mentioned the Patriots' huge implied total, which means there will likely be plenty of touchdowns to go around in that offense.
Gronkowski is one of the league's biggest Red Zone threats, with a 44 percent Red Zone touchdown rate over the last two seasons that ranks second among players with 20+ Red Zone targets. He has seen 21 percent of the Patriots' Red Zone targets in that time, despite missing a game in each season.

Defense/Special Teams
Punt play: Miami Dolphins ($2,900) vs. Tennessee
The Titans have allowed 12.5 DraftKings points per game to opposing defenses, while giving up at least eight in each game. Their 17.4 percent turnover rate is the seventh-highest in the league. Marcus Mariota has had accuracy issues, posting a 58.8 percent completion percentage, ranking 26th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.
Tennessee's 20-point implied total is one of the lower marks of the week. While Miami’s defense is pretty bad, and they may not be a safe play, the matchup gives them a lot of upside as a punt play.

Mid-tier value play: Minnesota Vikings ($3,400) vs. Houston
The Vikings have been one of the league's best defenses to start the season, ranking third in DVOA. They also rank fourth in FootballOutsiders' adjusted sack rate and have the league's highest turnover rate.
Houston's offensive line ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate and they rank 14th in offensive turnover rate. Brock Osweiler ranks 23rd in completion percentage. The Vikings are also 6-point favorites at home here and the Texans have the lowest implied total of the week at 17.
High priced stud: New England Patriots ($3,700) vs. Cleveland
The Patriots are 10.5-point favorites (the biggest point spread of the week) and the Browns' 18-point implied total is the second-lowest of the week.
The Browns have allowed consistently strong fantasy performances to defenses, giving up at least seven DraftKings points in each game this season. New England hasn't been consistent, but they displayed some big upside in a similarly good matchup against Houston, scoring 18 points in Week 3.
Cleveland's offensive line ranks 25th in pass protection and their 14.9 percent turnover rate is the ninth-highest in the NFL. A team that struggles in pass protection likely playing from behind should lead to a ton of pressure on rookie Cody Kessler, creating lots of opportunities for both sacks and turnovers.